Haunted Flower's early Oscar Picks


All the glamorous people in Hollywood got up early one morning this week to find out once and for all if this would be THEIR year, THEIR time, THEIR chance to win a naked gold man standing on a round pedestal to make them the envy of all their peers. Oh yes, my friends, it can get ugly fighting over that little man and there is plenty of lobbying and schmoozing done for months in advance in a political campaigning process to get it. Once you’ve gotten it, no one can take it away from you regardless if the rest of your career blows. You can take a poop and make it a movie and they will always be able to advertise it as starring “Oscar winning actor/actress so-and-so”. You can demand more money, more press time, and more time on the red carpet while people fawn over your weird draped sparkly dress.

Apart from all that, it can be a time of great recognition for those who till consider it a high honor awarded to the most deserving person. The nominees have been released and I’m going to dissect it for you with the list of those who SHOULD win and those who WILL win. These are my early predictions…

Best Picture:

Black Swan

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids Are Alright

The King’s Speech

127 Hours

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter’s Bone

Fan favorite – Inception. The most mind-bending movie I saw all year. But it has too many special effects so it will suffer the Avatar-effect.

SHOULD win – The Social Network. It was the best movie I saw this year after Inception. The story, the acting, the script, the music, the directing was all amazing.

WILL win – The King’s Speech. The Academy loves period pieces, they love history, they love the story of one man’s struggle to overcome obstacles.

Best Director:

Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan

David O. Russell – The Fighter

Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech

David Fincher – The Social Network

Joel & Ethan Coen – True Grit

SHOULD win – Christopher Nolan for Inception. Oh, wait, he’s not up there? Yeah, that’s a HUGE snub considering how many intricate factors there were in each screen.

WILL win – David Fincher. He deserves it out of the nominees, it was the best.

Best Actress:

Annette Bening – The Kids Are Alright

Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole

Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone

Natalie Portman – Black Swan

Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine

SHOULD win – Natalie Portman. She threw everything into it and it was captivating in a scary way.

WILL win – Natalie Portman. It’s her time and this was her movie.

Best Actor:

Javier Bardem – Biutiful

Jeff Bridges – True Grit

Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network

Colin Firth – The King’s Speech

James Franco – 127 Hours

SHOULD win – James Franco. Poor guy led an entire movie being stuck in one place by a rock and kept it flowing so you couldn’t look away from his performance.

WILL win – Colin Firth. He played a historical figure with a speech impediment and that earns big points with the Academy.

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams – The Fighter

Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech

Melissa Leo – The Fighter

Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit

Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom

SHOULD win – Melissa Leo. There is no black and white with her role, it’s a lot of gray area as she isn’t 100% bad or good. She did a great job of owning that line without being self conscious about it.

WILL win – Hailee Steinfeld. This little girl actually had a lead role and was a big breakout performance in the movie. Sympathy for her category will get her a little extra credit, plus she’s in a Coen movie AND a western. Signed, sealed, delivered.

Best Supporting Actor:

Christian Bale – The Fighter

John Hawkes – Winter’s Bone

Jeremy Renner – The Town

Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are Alright

Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

SHOULD win – Christian Bale. His best performance in years, completely absent of any chip on his shoulder.

WILL win – Christian Bale. Being a junkie isn’t easy and he has been super gracious acknowledging the actual people portrayed in the film on the campaign trail.

Best Film Editing:

Black Swan

The Fighter

The King’s Speech

127 Hours

The Social Network

SHOULD win – Inception, where the hell is it? Can YOU edit together four dream levels and have it make sense to the audience?

WILL win – The Social Network. Jumping back and forth in time and from two different lawsuits taking place simultaneously and the opening sequence with Zuckerberg designing a site while getting drunk and blogging and showing reactions all over campus earn this award.

Best Documentary Feature:

Exit Through the Gift Shop

Gasland

Inside Job

Restrepo

Waste Land

SHOULD win – Exit Through the Gift Shop. This documentary kept you guessing the entire time if it even WAS a documentary and that act of pulling the wool over the audience’s eyes was a great achievement.

WILL win – I haven’t seen Gasland, Restrepo, or Waste Land so I don’t feel comfortable guaranteeing this one, but I’d really like to see Exit Through the Gift Shop win.

Best Animated Feature Film:

How To Train Your Dragon

The Illusionist

Toy Story 3

First off, why only three films? Can’t we do five like the other categories?

SHOULD win – How to Train Your Dragon. It was moving, had a fantastic story, and it had DRAGONS. It was awesome for all kinds of reasons, but you should be satisfied just knowing there are DRAGONS are in it.

WILL win – Toy Story 3. Why? Because it was a Best Picture nominee. Why? Because it was made by Pixar and everything Pixar touches turns to gold like King Midas. Unfortunately, even though this movie was great, I don’t think it deserved it. This third movie in a series was NOT Return of the King.

Best Visual Effects:

Alice in Wonderland

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1

Hereafter

Inception

Iron Man 2

Now Iron Man 2 is an Oscar-nominated film. Wow.

SHOULD win – Inception. Did you perhaps see some buildings folding in on themselves to create an endless maze?

WILL win – Alice in Wonderland probably just to piss me off and prevent Inception from getting anything. But really, if Inception doesn’t get this, I’m going to punch someone in the face.

Best Original Song:

“Coming Home” – Country Strong

“I See the Light” – Tangled

“If I Rise” – 127 Hours

“We Belong Together” – Toy Story 3

SHOULD win – Tangled. That song and the lanterns floating through the air on screen were so beautiful, I almost teared up.

WILL win – Toy Story 3. It’s Pixar. And sorry, but 127 Hours was no Slumdog Millionaire so it’s not touching this.

Best Original Score:

How to Train Your Dragon

Inception

The King’s Speech

127 Hours

The Social Network

SHOULD win: Inception. I liked the BUUUUUUMMM BUUUMMMMM BUUMMMM. There was no score more thrilling and recognizable than that.

WILL win: The Social Network. I hope. I only really noticed it upon the second viewing and it really captured the movie.

Best Cinematography:

Black Swan

Inception

The King’s Speech

The Social Network

True Grit

SHOULD win: Inception. It ought to win all technical awards.

WILL win: Black Swan I suspect. It did do some amazing little tricks and would be the only one I could see taking this away from Inception.

Best Sound Mixing:

Inception

The King’s Speech

Salt

The Social Network

True Grit

SHOULD win – Inception.

WILL win – Inception.

Best Sound Editing: (I don’t remember why these are even separate categories.)

Inception

Toy Story 3

Tron: Legacy

True Grit

Unstoppable

SHOULD win – Inception.

WILL win – Tron: Legacy. Just to mess with me.

Best Costume Design:

Alice in Wonderland

I Am Love

The King’s Speech

The Tempest

True Grit

SHOULD win: Alice in Wonderland. Simply for creativity.

WILL win: The King’s Speech. Period costumes win ALL.

Best Art Direction:

Alice in Wonderland

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1

Inception

The King’s Speech

True Grit

SHOULD win: Inception

WILL win: The King’s Speech. It’s a period piece. Occasionally they used not symmetrical camera angles. They want to thwart me.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy – 127 Hours

Aaron Sorkin – The Social Network

John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton & Lee Unkrich – Toy Story 3

Joel & Ethan Coen – True Grit

Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini – Winter’s Bone

Snub that Never Let Me Go didn’t make this list.

SHOULD win: Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network. Best, wordiest screenplay full of quotes I want on a giant poster in my room.

WILL win: Oh he better win.

Best Original Screenplay:

Mike Leigh – Another Year

Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson – The Fighter

Christopher Nolan – Inception

Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg – The Kids Are Alright

David Seidler – The King’s Speech

SHOULD win: Christopher Nolan for Inception. How do you even craft a story that complex?

WILL win: Christopher Nolan. But The King’s Speech might come from behind on this one because he may have written in all the stutters, but that would be a terrible choice, especially given the details of the ending (which would have been better ending RIGHT after the speech).

Best Makeup:

Who cares?

I’m skipping short films too. We all know those are categories we leave the room during to go get more snacks or go to the bathroom. So those are my picks for what oughta win and what probably will win. My track record isn’t perfect, but this is what my gut tells me right now at the end of January. Some things might change, after all Julia Roberts is campaigning for Javier Bardem by hosting screenings at her home and somehow got this foreign film hardly anyone saw recognized more widely. Crazier things have happened.

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